The price index for government bonds this week is practically unchanged. The main interests of investors are aimed at medium-term and short-term OFZs. The volume of trading in this sector of the exchange is kept at the level of 6.5 billion rubles, yielding to the April results.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, interest in the federal loan bond may grow as inflation slows down. This year, the agency expects prices to rise by 17.5%. Further forecasts are more optimistic, from 2023 they expect inflation at the level of 6%, and in 2024 – no more than 4%. Earlier, the ministry’s analysts set the expected inflation to over 20% by the end of the year. Experts’ opinion became more optimistic after the ruble exchange rate strengthened and weekly price growth rates became more restrained.
On an annualized basis, inflation for April has already exceeded the planned level by 0.3 percentage points. If the rise in prices does not go faster, the Central Bank is expected to cut the key rate again. By December, it may approach the level of last year and stop at 10-12%.
If inflation slows down, medium and long-term federal loan bonds will become more attractive for investment. With a maturity of 2 years or more, the yield on them can be set at 10% per year.