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09/23/2022 Euro exchange rate for September 2022: forecast and influencing factors

Our editorial assumes that by the end of September the euro exchange rate will be $61.18. Read more about the events and opinions based on which the forecast is based, read further in our article.

The euro exchange rate is under severe pressure from geopolitical factors. The European Union – the issuer of the euro, as well as the United States – the issuer of the dollar, have introduced a ban on the import of their national cash into the Russian Federation. Non-cash transactions on accounts continue to be carried out. However, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation gave a proportional response and also introduced restrictions on the turnover of the euro in Russia. Thus, as a result of the direct intervention of regulators, the free circulation of the euro in the country has actually been stopped. Let us consider how, under these conditions, euro exchange rate forecast for september 2022 of the year.

External factors affecting the euro

According to the decision of the Central Bank of the country, at the cash desks of banks located in Russia, until September 9, it is possible to withdraw foreign currency only in dollars, only from accounts opened earlier, only within $ 10 thousand. Funds on savings accounts in other currencies, including euro, can be withdrawn only after conversion into rubles.

Of course, such a restriction affects quotes. At first glance, there is no point in buying euros at all. However, according to experts, people do not live one day, and therefore consider market and non-market incentives as temporary. Therefore, the euro exchange rate is still of interest to Russians. But gradually everyone begins to understand that a quick improvement will not happen.

The speech of the head of the Central Bank E. Nabiulina at a press conference in July with a statement that the restrictive measure would be extended due to the ongoing geopolitical confrontation had a negative impact on euro exchange rate for september 2022. Namely, the head of the Central Bank said on July 22: “… in September we will be forced to extend the restrictions that were introduced in early March.” One reason was announced: there are no grounds to expect an additional inflow of foreign currency in cash in September.

It is not difficult to predict the subsequent actions of the Central Bank. On the one hand, the excessive strengthening of the ruble against the euro has a negative impact on the competitiveness of Russian goods. On the other hand, the opening of the opportunity to receive euro cash can provoke panic and collapse in banks.

The policy of the Central Bank is aimed solely at maintaining the balance of the ruble against the euro and the dollar.

Under these conditions, the logical question of whether the Russians need the euro is not removed from the agenda. Trips to the countries of the European Union, including those that were part of the USSR 20 years ago, and where friends and relatives live, will continue. The demand for Euro-tourism among the intelligentsia will also continue, but its dynamics will depend on the level of income and standard of living.

It should also be taken into account that the circulation of non-cash euros is not prohibited, and therefore transactions with this currency continue. Although the statistics clearly demonstrates the fall in demand. More recently, the dollar was much more expensive than the euro, and today the quotes are almost equal.

In addition, the key rate set by the regulator has a significant impact on the exchange rate. Since the demand for the euro is presented not only by citizens, but also by financial institutions and commercial enterprises. But banks no longer issue loans in European currency, and business representatives, due to a decrease in the share of imported goods in the consumer basket, have significantly reduced the number of transactions with the euro.

For traders, the euro exchange rate is important not only in relation to the ruble, but also in relation to the dollar. Since a significant part of speculative operations is carried out on the euro-dollar pair. The policy of the Russian regulator has almost no influence here. As well as sanctions in general, if we consider only the direct impact of the actions of state bodies.

But the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West has had a significant impact on the global economy. Its implications for various sectors are not entirely clear. Therefore, trading is now under conditions of increased risk. Competent and simply lucky traders will be able to make good money, while underprepared and prone to excessive risk are likely to suffer losses.

The exchange rate is also influenced by rising inflation and the movement of capital, however, all these factors directly depend primarily on how events develop in the world political arena.

Brief summary of forecasts from banks and experts

Representatives of the expert community are discussing the formation of quotations in the conditions of the termination of exchange trading. Euro forecast for September in the current conditions, none of the specialists with a reputation does. Since it has already become obvious to everyone that the sanctions will increase, but it is impossible to say unequivocally what measures could be, therefore, to draw up euro exchange rate forecasts for september impossible.

The expert community is also waiting for the settlement of the geopolitical conflict and is not making any plans. Today, the quotes of the euro-ruble pair depend primarily on when relatively free trade will be allowed. Meanwhile, the government conducts most of its foreign trade in yuan.

It should also be taken into account that the euro-ruble pair is under pressure from another poorly predictable factor – the withdrawal of money by Russian entrepreneurs from the offshore zone. According to many of the most competent representatives of the expert community, it was the return of Russian capital to the country that led to a serious strengthening of the ruble. However, this factor is not only difficult to predict, but also extremely difficult to take into account. In fact, the statistical authorities do not provide us with any data on this matter.

Euro forecast table in September 2022

Current euro exchange rate forecast for september 2022 in the table shows quotes by day, based on the news chart. The change in quotes also includes the traditional change in the exchange rate at the beginning and end of the month

the date Meaning
01.09.22 $59.53
02.09.22 $59.65
03.09.22 60 ₽
04.09.22 $59.59
05.09.22 60.06 RUB
06.09.22 $60.24
07.09.22 $60.47
08.09.22 $60.83
09.09.22 $60.59
09/10/22 $60.83
09/11/22 $60.83
09/12/22 $60.89
09/13/22 $60.77
09/14/22 $60.94
09/15/22 $60.94
09/16/22 $60.89
09/17/22 $61.18
09/18/22 $61.12
19.09.22 61.06 RUB
20.09.22 $60.83
21.09.22 61.06 RUB
09/22/22 61 ₽
09/23/22 $60.94
24.09.22 $60.89
25.09.22 61 ₽
09/26/22 61.06 RUB
27.09.22 $61.12
28.09.22 61.3 ₽
09/29/22 $61.24
09/30/22 $61.18

Results

As we see, euro exchange rate forecast for september 2022 depends on unpredictable factors, so everyone froze in anticipation of the further development of the geopolitical conflict.

The materials presented in this section do not constitute individual investment advice.